Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

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shrink
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a shrink » 13.9.2011 21:59

Kako statistik pomete s parapsihološkim šarlatanom Radinom:
Nature
Volume 389 October 23 1997
book reviews
WHERE HAS THE BILLION TRILLION GONE?
The Conscious Universe: The Scientific Truth of Psychic Phenomena
by Dean Radin
HarperEdge 1997 pp320 $25
reviewed for Nature by I.J. Good

My friend Christopher R. Evans worked for a time with the well-known parapsychologist J. B. Rhine, but became a skeptic. In 1974 I invited Evans to Blacksburg, Virginia, to give a lecture on extra-sensory perception (ESP), and picked him up at Roanoke airport. He had travelled from London in a Boeing 727. The licence number of my car happened to be CRE 727. The probability of that coincidence was about (1/26)^3 x 1,000 = 1/17,000,000.

I have experienced three even more remarkable coincidences, one of which changed the course of my life. But I doubt whether these coincidences were paranormal because there are more than 5 million minutes a decade. Some people must have experienced chance coincidences with probabilities of about 10^-14. So controlled, not anecdotal, observations are needed.

In England, for about 20 years starting in 1939, S. G. Soal was by far the most prominent parapsychologist. He did controlled card-guessing experiments resembling those of Rhine. At the suggestion of Whateley Carington, Soal examined his records, looking for 'hits' one ahead and one behind the guess of the 'current' card. In one series of experiments, the tail probability, or P value (the probability that, by chance, the outcome would be at least as 'extreme' as the observed outcome) was 10^-35 for the 'one-aheads' thus seeming to prove the existence of precognitive telepathy.

But evidence accumulated, culminating in the ingenious detective work of Betty Marwick in 1978, showing that Soal's studies were very probably fraudulent. Dean Radin, author of "The Conscious Universe" avoids mentioning Soal.

Radin is firmly convinced that paranormal events happen. His conviction is based mainly on evidence from controlled experiments but is influenced also by the 'non-local' phenomena of quantum mechanics.

Quantum mechanics has affected many people's metaphysical speculations about consciousness and ESP. For example, some 50 years ago, in a conversation with the prominent physicist Leon Rosenfeld about subjective experiences, I said: "A [quantum] field theory does seem to be natural in order to understand how the activities of numerous neurons in a brain somehow summate. Perhaps psi depends on PSI [the Schrödinger wave function]."

Leaving psi aside, there are much more serious and technical speculations about the relationship between consciousness and quantum fields by Stuart Hameroff and Roger Penrose, related to microtubules--extremely small sketal elements in neurons. One could say that microtubules update Descartes' pineal gland. Penrose does not, however, mention ESP in his work on consciousness.

Taken at face value, some of the evidence from controlled experiments is conclusive. But we have to allow for fraud and the 'file-drawer' effect. Take the first of these. Even many 'normal' scientists have cheated, as recorded by Alexander Kohn in "False Prophets: Fraud and Error in Science and Medicine" (Barnes and Noble 1986). To that collection may be added the psychologists who lie to their subjects and call the lying 'experimental dissimulation'.

Parapsychologuists and psychics have more incentive to cheat because, if their research results are uninteresting, they have less opportunity to turn to teaching. Unconscious cheating, wishful thinking (which is universal), unsound experimental design and analysis, and seeing what we expect are further pitfalls. The statistician M. G. Kendall once described the phenomenon of seeing what one expects as "one of the deadliest forms of bias in psychology". He was referring to an experiment in which an observer of a reliable random number generator had a tendency to write down too many even numbers.

Potentially the most important evidence in Radin's book is the chapter on meta-analysis, which is also emphasized in the introduction--and it is here that the 'file drawer' effect comes into play.

Meta-analysis is the combination of results from many experiments. A problem in meta-analysis, and in statistics generally, is how to allow for the researches that remain unpublished and unknown because their P values did not reach a conventional significance level such as 0.05. I do not know who coined the name 'file drawer' effect for this problem. This effect drags down the statistical significance of published work. Radin claims that "parapsychologists were among the first to become sensitive to this problem"-=-although he does not say when--and he mentions that "in 1975 the Parapsychological Association's officers adopted a policy opposing the selective reporting of positive outcomes". The problem was known to statisticians by 1958.

Consider the following typical example. Radin points out that there were 186 publications on ESP card tests worldwide from 1882 to 1939. "The combined results of this four-million trial database [taken at face value]," he says, "translate into tremendous odds against chance--more than a billion trillion to one." (A 'trial' is the guess of one card) He means that the P value is about 10^-21--he is not writing only for the scientific establishment. This P value corresponds to a bulge above 'chance' expectation of 9.5 sigma, where sigma is the standard deviation. (I call that a 'sigmage' of 9.5.)

Apart from the possibility of conscious and unconscious fraud and wishful thinking in some fraction of the publications, Radin claims, with no explanation, that, in order to "nullify" the statistical significance, the file drawer would have to contain "more than 3,300 unpublished, unsuccessful reports for each published report". That number 3,300 is a gross overestimate. It should be reduced at least to about 15 (or even to 8 ).

The expected sigmage in the file drawer, under the null hypothesis, would be slightly negative but I will call it zero. If these results were combined with the published work, the total sample size would be multiplied by 16, thus becoming 64 million individual guesses. Given the null hypothesis ('chance'), the bulge would be unaffected so the sigmage would be divided by sqrt (16 ) = 4 and would become 9.5/4 = 2.4 with a P value of about 1/100.

Because the number of individual guesses is so large, this P value appreciably SUPPORTS the null hypothesis (no ESP) :!: . This is because a Bayes factor (the factor by which the odds of a hypothesis are multiplied in light of the observations), corresponding to a fixed P value, is roughly proportional to 1/ sqrt (N), where N is the sample size. So Radin's method for evaluating the file-drawer effect, whatever that method may be, must be misguided. This conclusion largely undermines Radin's meta-analysis which is central to his case for ESP :!: .

Nevertheless, Radin's book is well written and provides a good summary of the arguments supporting the existence of ESP, with about 600 references. It is less good on the counter-arguments. Readers should also consult "ESP and Parapsychology: A Critical Evaluation by C. E. M. Hansel (Buffalo 1980) where much fraudulent work is exposed :!: . Radin quotes Hansel as saying that three P values, each of 0.01, amount to one of 10^-6, and that he (Radin) would find that convincing. But the product of independent P values is not a P value. The product has to be transformed by a method due to R. A. Fisher. Both Hansel and Radin have overlooked this. In the present example, the composite P value is 1/9000 not 1/1,000,000.

I am not a skeptic by definition. There is one type of evidence that could convince me if it were successful. Guesses, by psychics, of the parities (even or odd) of future cricket scores could be published on the World Wide Web. The actual scores and parities could be published (later) in large print to help the precognizing of the psychics and to help their evaluation. This procedure would rule out the possibiity of undetectable fraud.

I.J. Good is in the Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061-0439, USA

nitsnls
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a nitsnls » 13.9.2011 23:17

shrink napisal/-a:Kako statistik pomete s parapsihološkim šarlatanom Radinom:
...
Glede na to kar pravi Brian David Josephson, znanstvenik, Nobelov nagrajenec se I.J. Good v svoji kritiki moti (I.J. kdo?) torej tudi shrink, ki ga navaja:
.Original letter, sent to Nature Correspondence by Brian Josephson (Nov. 13th., 1997):

I.J. Good's review of Radin's survey of the evidence for paranormal phenomena, The Conscious Universe [1], misleads by its selective approach to parapsychological research, combined with claims of error on the author's part that are invalid. As the book indicates, possibilities for fraud and unintentional error are much reduced by present day techniques so that what may or may not have happened in the case of Soal is essentially irrelevant (unless one believes in extensive collusive cheating among apparently reputable individuals, a hypothesis I find implausible). For example, readings are nowadays normally not written down by the experimenter, but recorded and analysed automatically. Such improvements have not made the effects go away, giving one some reason to consider that they are real.

Regarding the claims of error, Good may have been misled by certain simplifications in the book that Radin has explained as having been necessitated by the requirement that it be attractive to the general reader as well as informative to the interested scientist, on which grounds he omitted comment on the error of Hansel that Good highlights in his review. Again, for the general reader's benefit, he described a P-value which was actually of order 1 in 102000 simply as 'odds of more than a billion trillion to one against chance', so that the latter number does not approximate to the actual P-value as Good assumed. clarification

Thus investigation shows Good's claims of mistakes on the author's part to be unfounded. :!: Radin has, as Good admits, provided a well-written account of the arguments supporting the existence of ESP, while the very frequently misconceived nature of the arguments of sceptics may have justified giving less space to them than Good would have liked.

[1] Good, I.J., Nature 389, 806-7, 1997.

Brian D. Josephson, Cavendish Laboratory, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HE, U.K.
P.S.
Jaz sem shrinkove žaljivke prijavil uredništvu Kvarkadabre in čakam na njihovo pojasnilo.
Zadnjič spremenil nitsnls, dne 13.9.2011 23:19, skupaj popravljeno 2 krat.

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shrink
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a shrink » 13.9.2011 23:18

nitsnls napisal/-a:
shrink napisal/-a:Kako statistik pomete s parapsihološkim šarlatanom Radinom:
...
Glede na to kar pravi Brian David Josephson, znanstvenik, Nobelov nagrajenec se I.J. Good v svoji kritiki moti (I.J. kdo?) torej tudi shrink, ki ga navaja:
.Original letter, sent to Nature Correspondence by Brian Josephson (Nov. 13th., 1997):

I.J. Good's review of Radin's survey of the evidence for paranormal phenomena, The Conscious Universe [1], misleads by its selective approach to parapsychological research, combined with claims of error on the author's part that are invalid. As the book indicates, possibilities for fraud and unintentional error are much reduced by present day techniques so that what may or may not have happened in the case of Soal is essentially irrelevant (unless one believes in extensive collusive cheating among apparently reputable individuals, a hypothesis I find implausible). For example, readings are nowadays normally not written down by the experimenter, but recorded and analysed automatically. Such improvements have not made the effects go away, giving one some reason to consider that they are real.

Regarding the claims of error, Good may have been misled by certain simplifications in the book that Radin has explained as having been necessitated by the requirement that it be attractive to the general reader as well as informative to the interested scientist, on which grounds he omitted comment on the error of Hansel that Good highlights in his review. Again, for the general reader's benefit, he described a P-value which was actually of order 1 in 102000 simply as 'odds of more than a billion trillion to one against chance', so that the latter number does not approximate to the actual P-value as Good assumed. clarification

Thus investigation shows Good's claims of mistakes on the author's part to be unfounded. :!: Radin has, as Good admits, provided a well-written account of the arguments supporting the existence of ESP, while the very frequently misconceived nature of the arguments of sceptics may have justified giving less space to them than Good would have liked.

[1] Good, I.J., Nature 389, 806-7, 1997.

Brian D. Josephson, Cavendish Laboratory, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HE, U.K.
Ja, seveda, CENZURA Josephson (to, da je njegova preteklost nerelevantna, sem zelenemu sprancu že pojasnil), ki verjame v parapsihologijo, je res merodajen. :lol:

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shrink
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a shrink » 13.9.2011 23:49

nitsnls napisal/-a:P.S.
Jaz sem shrinkove žaljivke prijavil uredništvu Kvarkadabre in čakam na njihovo pojasnilo.
Hah, kako tipičen odziv s strani šarlatana. Samo zate še enkrat: oznaka CENZURA ni nobena žalitev. :lol:

Naj ti pa povem, da so se tudi drugi šarlatani pritoževali: npr. Srečko Šorli, ki je neprestano grozil in nazadnje bojda celo pisal dekanu FMF :lol: in prodajalci bio-pralnih kroglic, ki so grozili s tožbami.

Komaj čakam na odziv, zeleni spranec. :lol:

P.S. A svojega početja (kako sam spamaš in žališ) nisi omenil? No, ti bom naredil uslugo in to še enkrat obelodanil:

Žalitve uporabnika nitsnls:

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nitsnls napisal/-a:Pop prepuščam tebi shrink (ajde še Pionir zbirko...), kar pa se znanstvenih testov tiče pa si lahko mnenje nekega ped*a o njih nekam zatakneš!
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nitsnls napisal/-a:Ti se kar delaj budalo prokleti šalabajzer!
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hagi
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a hagi » 26.11.2011 23:23

Moji bližnji so pred kratkim kupili podlogo za spanje z biokristali podjetje igaRelax. Na njihovi spletni strani (http://www.kje-spis-macka.si !?! :lol: ) lahko zasledimo naslednji zapis :
"To je podloga za spanje! Podloga katera vsebuje 300.000 let stare kristale, minerale in plemenite kovine. Vse skupaj se zmelje, preseje in izbere samo najboljše. Te se nato s pomočjo specialnega orodja pravilno spoji skupaj na tak način, da dosežejo maksimalen učinek oddajanja energije na vaše telo.Kristali v BioCrystal podlogi so programirani, da oddajajo vibracije s frekvenco 10-900 vibracij na sekundo, intenzivnost, pri kateri kristali spodbujajo telo za naravno sposobnost za samo zdravljenje, in pripomorejo k boljšemu počutju. BioCrystal je edinstvena v tem, da dejansko deluje saj takoj občuti toplino, ki se širi po vsem telesu zaradi visoke gostote energije kristalov! Najkasneje po približno 20 min."
Kot fizik se mi je seveda zadeva zdela smešna vendar mi uporabniki zatrjujejo da deluje (placebo?). Dodaten razlog v prid biokristalom navajajo razne certifikate:
- certifikat EUNES (Evropsko združenje za naravno, energijsko in duhovno zdravljenje)
- certifikat BION (Inštitut za bioenergetiko in novo biologijo Ljubljana)
(še zapis na spletni strani http://www.bion.si: Kakovost biopolja so prva objektivna potrdila v Evropski uniji o kakovostnem vplivnem ali zaščitnem delovanju izdelkov, snovi in storitev na biološko polje (biopolje) organizmov, večinoma na človeka. Certifikate izdaja neodvisni, znanstveno raziskovalni Inštitut BION na osnovi rezultatov certifikatskega testiranja. Certifikat je od leta 2005, ko smo po 10-ih letih raziskovanj, razvoja in testiranj pričeli s certificiranjem, postal merilo kakovosti tovrstnih izdelkov. To prinaša proizvajalcem, prodajalcem in ponudnikom storitev konkurenčno prednost, uporabnikom pa zagotovilo, da imajo izdelek, snov ali storitev lastnosti, ki so na certifikatu oz. v poročilu o testiranju navedene.
Na vprašanja v zvezi z bioelektromagnetiko in testiranjem izdelkov odgovarjamo tudi na forumu Med.over.net - Biopolje in bioelektromagnetika.")

In sedaj par vprašanj:
- ali biokristali res delujejo ( :lol: )
- kako komu dopovedat, da gre za šarlatanstvo, ko pa za njimi stojijo razni certifikati in inštituti z raznimi doktorji znanosti na čelu?

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shrink
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a shrink » 27.11.2011 5:42

hagi napisal/-a:In sedaj par vprašanj:
- ali biokristali res delujejo ( :lol: )
Retorično vprašanje.
- kako komu dopovedat, da gre za šarlatanstvo, ko pa za njimi stojijo razni certifikati in inštituti z raznimi doktorji znanosti na čelu?
Recimo z napotitvijo na:

http://www.kvarkadabra.net/article.php/ ... ziskovalci

Popotnik
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a Popotnik » 27.11.2011 16:15

Kaj ni tak, da inštitut Bion financira tudi proračun RS?

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shrink
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a shrink » 28.11.2011 5:53

Popotnik napisal/-a:Kaj ni tak, da inštitut Bion financira tudi proračun RS?
Proračun RS financira tudi verske organizacije.

Popotnik
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a Popotnik » 28.11.2011 11:06

shrink napisal/-a:Proračun RS financira tudi verske organizacije.
To je res (in ta odgovor s tvoje strani sem tudi predvidel :lol: ). Samo verske organacije najbrž ne financira resor za znanost, ali pač.

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shrink
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a shrink » 29.11.2011 13:14

Popotnik napisal/-a:
shrink napisal/-a:Proračun RS financira tudi verske organizacije.
To je res (in ta odgovor s tvoje strani sem tudi predvidel :lol: ). Samo verske organacije najbrž ne financira resor za znanost, ali pač.
Saj je za časa prejšnje vlade resor za znanost prav lepo financiral cerkvene znanstvenike za družinsko terapijo in podobno. :lol: Pa tudi Šorlijeva "celostna ekologija" se je bojda financirala iz tega naslova. :lol:

javalda
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a javalda » 4.12.2011 11:04

Tud pr men so moji nabavili to podlogo s kristali in seveda sem bil zelo proti ampak kot je rekel fotr realno sem jaz 21 letni fant on pa okoli 50 let in ga nimam kaj učit kaj si bo kupil in kaj ne.. kar me pa še bolj jezi je pa to, da pravita oba, da se zelo bolje počutita po spanju na tej podlogi in mal mam filing da vem kaj mi bo božiček prinesel :D ok ni panike mejbi deluje sam dej men raj denar pa si kupim sam nekaj :twisted:
res pa je tudi sam sem malo pogledal kaj to je za ena podloga in predvsem se mi zdi pametno tisti celiant na podlogi.. ga uporabljajo športniki za povečanje kisika v telesu in baje športna znamka reebok uporablja ta celiant, pa neki štumfi se delajo iz tega in vse živo..
ne vem, če dobim to podlogo javim kako in kaj, mi je pa všeč da ščiti proti sevanju ker dobesedno spim z računalnikom
se čujemo..

Motore
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a Motore » 17.12.2011 18:59

Starši so se znova vrnili iz kratkega izleta in zopet prišli (tokrat iz Bosne) z novim šarlatanskim izdelkom: Koloidno srebrno vodo (Colloidal Silver Water).

Za eno stekleničko so odšteli 10 €, kupili so seveda dve. Kot je večinoma vsem jasno ta voda ne deluje (celo toksična je lahko), vendar ljudi z lastnimi dobrimi izkušnjami je vedno dovolj. Cene sicer izgledajo nedolžne, ampak kot v navodilih piše uporabiš 500ml stekleničko v 8 do 10-ih dneh, kar se z redno uporabo pretvori v ne tako nedolžno tarifo.

Popotnik
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a Popotnik » 22.12.2011 0:02

Ionizator vode

http://www.facebook.com/aokwater.si?sk=info
http://aokwater.si/
Pomaga filtrirati klor in druge onesnaževalce pitne vode.
Nevtralizira kislost vode, s čimer pomaga pri odpravljanju zakisanosti telesa.
Edina posoda za vodo, ki vodo iz pipe spremeni v alkalno ionizirano vodo.
Priskrbi vam pomembne antioksidante, ki nevtralizirajo škodljive proste radikale.
AOK voda dokazano dvakratno poveča vsebnost magnezija.
Vsebuje znanstveno preverjeno in patentirano kombinacijo mineralov, ki zagotavljajo obilico aktivnih vodikovih ionov.
Minerali pomagajo pri čiščenju krvi, absorpciji maščob in razstrupljanju telesa.
Patentirani filter pomaga pri izločanju v vodi prisotnih težkih kovin.
Alkalna ionizirana voda postane prenosljiva, primerna za na pot, uporabo doma, v pisarni, rekreacijo, ...
AOK voda ustreza smernicam Svetovne zdravstvene organizacije za kakovost pitne
Sklicujejo se tudi na http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masaru_Emoto

Je vse res ali je tudi kaj šarlatanskega? :D

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shrink
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Re: Šarlatanstvo na prodajnih policah

Odgovor Napisal/-a shrink » 22.12.2011 15:42

Popotnik, niti pogledati ne bom šel, ker mi je že ptiček na veji prišepnil. :lol:

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